Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer scores from open play than this point last season.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight season so far is the reduction of goals scored in open play and how clubs are netting increasingly from set-pieces instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches last season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less altogether.

If we look at overall statistics, efforts on goal clubs are making have seen a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

And despite the big increase in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen a mere two extra shots produced from these situations excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective sides have been at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Tell a Story

The 301 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures to date works out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the smallest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign is also the unique EPL campaign to see scoring at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen the largest decline, registering a mere four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's drop in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with five of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, this is mainly because them netting many goals at the beginning of last season instead of them having difficulty to convert in open play this season.

At the same time Manchester City have experienced the biggest increase, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared newly promoted sides with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored three extra scores in open play than the Saints did in their first 11 games leading to demotion last season.

In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

United have scored double the number goals from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland additionally have been better at netting than the club they replaced that went down.

City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, as they've netted a reduction of three than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, though this may result from the altered approach they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – are this season's primary examples by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Man City are the sole team to go against the grain up to now by performing the exact opposite.

It remains to be seen to see if sides continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start netting increased totals in open-play too.

Terry Phillips
Terry Phillips

A seasoned gaming journalist and esports analyst with over a decade of experience covering major tournaments and industry trends.