🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.